CHAPTER 02 · LESSON 05

Gold trend case study

Hide the later outcome, apply the declared swing rule and document what would change the conclusion before revealing more data.

Use only contemporaneous information

Mark the swing points, structural direction and relevant background from the information available at the chosen cutoff. Do not redraw the analysis after seeing the final move.

Keep structure and background separate

Macro variables can frame the environment, while price structure tests whether the market is acting consistently with that explanation. Neither automatically proves the other.

Review the process

Assess whether the swing rule, timeframe and invalidation were applied consistently. Evaluate process quality separately from the later price outcome.

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