The transmission path
Policy and economic data can change expectations for nominal rates and inflation. Those expectations influence inflation-protected bond yields, the US dollar and relative asset demand before appearing in gold-market behaviour.
Why the relationship can fail
Safe-haven demand, liquidity needs, central-bank purchases, non-US demand and prior positioning can offset or dominate opportunity-cost pressure. The timing can also differ across markets.
A reviewable observation
Record the official source and timestamp, then compare sustained changes in real yields and the dollar with gold structure. If the gold response remains absent, reduce the explanatory weight of the yield variable.
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