Gold ends slightly lower as yields stay in focus; Model A remains on wait｜31 August 2026

Open 4456.16

High 4470.87

Low 4400.10

Close 4448.80

SEALED MODELA · H4 / H1 / M30

Verified price path and Model A research state

Seventy-two source-bound H1 candles ending at the 31 August New York close. The state cards use the independently reviewed sealed replay.

H4 context

Range contextH4_RANGE_CONTEXT

H1 state

BearishBEAR

M30 decision

Wait for triggerWAIT_M30_TRIGGER

Accepted data

2,501 H1 · 544 H424/24 · Δ 0

The completed trade day

XAU/USD opened at 4,456.16, traded as high as 4,470.87 and as low as 4,400.10, then closed at 4,448.80. The close was 0.17% below the open. These figures describe the completed New York trade-day window; they are not live prices or a forecast.

Verified market context

The United States ten-year Treasury yield was 4.75%, up from 4.73% on 28 August. That two-basis-point rise is consistent with a modest opportunity-cost headwind for non-yielding gold, but it does not prove that one factor caused the full session move.

The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on 29 July. Three voters preferred a quarter-point increase, and the statement said inflation remained elevated. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July consumer prices rising 0.1% from the previous month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Reuters also reported that market participants were assessing rate expectations, higher yields and a firm US dollar. These are verified context points, not a single-cause explanation.

Model A research state

The sealed input accepted 2,501 valid H1 bars, 544 complete H4 bars and 48 complete, source-bound M30 bars. The M30 set matched 24 H1 pairs with a maximum parity delta of zero. Independent review passed, and the replay returned a bearish H1 state within an H4 range context. No closed M30 bar trigger was present at the edition cutoff, so the decision remained WAIT_M30_TRIGGER. This is research and news context only; it is not a trade signal.

What to observe next

The scheduled releases were the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on 1 September at 10:00 Eastern Time and the August Employment Situation on 4 September at 08:30 Eastern Time. The next step is to compare the official results with the response in the US dollar, Treasury yields and gold.

This page provides market information and a review method. It is not investment advice, a trading instruction, a price target or a promise of returns.

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